Climate change is emerging as a defining factor in the security and resilience of critical defense infrastructure. Readings from both the Defense Tech + Dual Use and Planetary Health libraries highlight a convergence of risks—ranging from direct physical threats like sea level rise and extreme weather, to indirect challenges such as energy insecurity, supply chain vulnerabilities, and the need for technological adaptation. This report synthesizes these sources to provide a comprehensive view of how climate change is shaping the future of defense infrastructure, military bases, and national security assets.
Climate change is now widely recognized as a significant threat to U.S. national security. The Council on Foreign Relations’ Climate Realism Initiative underscores that accelerating climate impacts—driven by rising emissions and lagging clean technology adoption—threaten U.S. geopolitical and economic influence. The initiative calls for a new approach to U.S. climate and energy policy, explicitly linking climate change’s physical impacts to national security and urging preparation for the geopolitical consequences of a warming world. Panel discussions within this initiative explore how climate impacts will affect the U.S. and its key relationships, and emphasize the importance of resilience planning for national security assets in the face of increasing climate volatility[1][2].
A growing body of evidence demonstrates that U.S. military installations—especially those along the coasts—are highly vulnerable to climate-induced flooding and sea level rise. By 2050, major installations such as Naval Station Norfolk (the world’s largest naval base), Marine Corps bases Camp Lejeune and Quantico, and the Kennedy Space Center are projected to experience major floods annually and minor floods weekly. The replacement cost for at-risk federal facilities is estimated at over $387 billion. Tidal flooding, which could become a daily occurrence for some bases, threatens to push critical training and operational land into tidal zones, severely hampering military readiness and operations[3][4].
The experience of Tyndall Air Force Base in Florida, devastated by Hurricane Michael in 2018, exemplifies the scale of the challenge. The base is undergoing a $5 billion reconstruction designed to create the "installation of the future," with elevated buildings, wind-resistant structures, and landscape modifications to withstand rising seas and stronger storms[5].
Extreme weather events—such as record-breaking rainfall, heat waves, and wildfires—are increasingly overwhelming U.S. infrastructure, including that which supports military operations. Infrastructure built on outdated assumptions about climate risk is proving incapable of withstanding more frequent and intense events. Recent years have seen catastrophic flooding, wildfires, and heat waves that have cut off communities, destroyed roads and bridges, and strained power grids. Experts warn that modeled climate impacts previously thought to be decades away are already materializing, and that even current projections may underestimate the true risks[6][7].
Critical water infrastructure supporting military bases is at risk from climate-driven scarcity. For example, Lake Mead, which supplies water to the San Diego region and nearby military installations, is experiencing precipitous drops in water levels, threatening regional water security within years. The need for energy-intensive desalination to compensate for dwindling freshwater supplies could create a feedback loop, increasing greenhouse gas emissions and further exacerbating climate risks[1].
Military installations face increasing vulnerabilities in their power supply due to climate-related disruptions. To address this, the defense sector is investing in resilient energy technologies such as compact nuclear microreactors and distributed microgrids. These systems are designed to provide reliable power during grid failures, ensuring sustained operations for critical infrastructure and advanced defense systems[8][9].
The Department of Defense (DoD) is adapting to climate and energy challenges by advancing expeditionary energy technologies, microgrids, and renewable energy systems. These innovations aim to maximize efficiency, reduce dependence on vulnerable fuel supply chains, and enhance the resilience of military installations to both natural and man-made disruptions[10][11][12].
Climate-related threats are also driving innovation in autonomous systems and surveillance. AI-powered drones, surveillance towers, and autonomous vessels are being developed to enhance battlefield awareness and respond to threats that may arise from climate-induced instability and disrupted communications[9].