Overview

This briefing synthesizes insights from your Planetary Health and VC Landscape & News libraries on solar energy growth, adoption drivers, challenges, and the state of perovskites.

Growth outlook

• Global solar capacity has accelerated on an exponential path. A cited market summary notes expansion from about 760 GW in 2020 to roughly 1.4 TW by 2025, pointing to continued multi‑year growth despite market corrections[1].
• Renewables are poised to overtake coal as the largest single source of electricity thanks to rapid capacity additions, with solar a leading contributor[2].

Adoption drivers

• Bankable models and cost declines: Solar‑as‑a‑service, favorable tax incentives, and transferability of credits in the U.S. lower the cost of capital and accelerate deployment[3].
• Policy and financing execution: Leveraging incentives and partnering with utilities and infrastructure players helps projects clear commercialization and grid‑integration hurdles[4].
• Technology improvements: Continuous efficiency gains and maturing manufacturing underpin higher value‑per‑watt and broadened use cases[5].

Key challenges

• Financing discipline and cyclicality: 2025 featured valuation resets and fund write‑downs in parts of renewables; firms anchored on cost curves, energy density, and grid integration are likelier to endure[6].
• Grid integration bottlenecks: Interconnection queues, transmission constraints, and firming needs remain practical barriers to rapid buildout[7].
• Next‑gen tech bankability: New cell architectures must prove durability, consistency, and field performance at scale to unlock project finance[8].

Perovskites: status and outlook

• Performance: Metal‑halide perovskites advanced from ~3% efficiency in 2009 to over 26% on small‑area devices; perovskite‑silicon tandems are approaching ~34% in records[9].
• Benefits: Thin‑film, tunable band gaps, potential low‑temperature and ink‑based processing, and strong defect tolerance; promising in tandems with silicon for higher efficiency[10].
• Commercialization hurdles (DOE SETO):
  • Stability and durability under real‑world conditions
  • High efficiency at scale (beyond small cells)
  • Manufacturability with high yield and cost control
  • Validation and bankability to satisfy investors and lenders[11]
• Near‑term entry points: Early deployments where space constraints value higher efficiency even at premium cost, while durability and scale milestones are proven[12][13].

Sources from your workspace

• Perovskite Solar Cells | Department of Energy[14]